Why has fighting erupted again in Sudan and what does it mean for the region?

In recent days, deadly conflict has broken out in Sudan’s capital Khartoum between rival factions of the military, with at least 180 people died and at least 1,800 civilians and combatants were injured.

The fighting, which broke out between the Sudanese National Army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Immediate Support Forces led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, saw fighter jets fly over the capital and armed fighters take to the streets.

militia vs army

A power struggle has been brewing in Sudan for some time between two generals, General Al-Burhan and Dagalo (also known as Hemediti), and the latest battle comes as no surprise to many. This has been his history for over 20 years, going back to those early days. darfur conflict and, the notorious Janjaweed militia.

Since then, Hemedi, a leader of the Janjaweed militia from the Abbala Rezeighat tribe in northern Darfur, has become known for his willingness to attack villages, leading to large-scale mass killings, rapes, and looting.

What he learned very early on was that strength comes from doing things that no sensible person would do. In contrast to the military, his combatants were “free range” and could roam freely and kill people.

Read more: Sudan conflict: Hemedi — warlords who built militias more powerful than the state

His work also had another role. He was “free range”, meaning he was outside the direct chain of command and could follow orders from the government, but with the utmost deniability.

This ruthless thinking and operational flexibility is what earned him the favor of then Sudanese President General Omar al-Bashir, who created an unofficial militia to protect him from his internal enemies, the National Islamic Front. I needed organization.

This militia has become the Rapid Support Force and is currently fighting the Sudanese army. In 2017, it was given special status as “.independent security forces”, not part of the regular army.

Mr. Al-Bashir was not the only one to benefit from this relationship.In exchange for his assistance, Hemedi was given free access. gold mines in darfurwhich earned him enormous wealth.

Let’s compare this with the Sudanese National Army’s al-Burhan. A career general, he joined the military in 1991 and conducted multiple operations. He had been in Darfur since the beginning of the conflict, coordinating the “counterinsurgency” campaign; He’s not that entrepreneurial Like hemedi or cashed in.

But in early 2019, when former President al-Bashir was in trouble, Hemedi stabbed his former benefactor in the back by supporting his opponent.this has never forgotten By Sudanese Islamists.

Mr al-Bashir was later ousted in a coup, but the generals were never comfortable bedmates. Although they have cooperated, there have been instances where Hemedi has clearly been treated unfairly. tried to weaken Al Burhan.

The region wants fewer wars and more business

All of these developments come at a time of increasing geopolitical instability for Sudan, where old alliances are rapidly changing.

Hemedi has succeeded in forging strong ties with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states by sending soldiers to fight in Yemen, but there are now signs of hope that the eight-year conflict may be coming to an end. I’m starting to see it. What fuels this hope is Detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran Recently through the mediation of Chinese people.

Read more: Explained: What Sudan’s coup is about and why the rest of the world needs to act

The United Arab Emirates, which hosted Al Burhan in February, called for restraint from Sudan and for both countries to work towards it. peaceful solution to the current crisis.

Egypt, which has traditionally supported al-Burhan and the military, also expressed its willingness to work for peace and called for an immediate ceasefire before the situation gets out of control.

Russia has been Strengthening relations with Sudan In recent years, self-restraint is also required. Russia has provided weapons to the Sudanese army.

For many countries in the region, the overall approach to Sudan can be summarized as less war and more business. Gulf states are looking to diversify their oil-based economies and are looking to Sudan for business opportunities. Conflict blocks those opportunities.

Civilians struggle for food as generals vie for power.

In Sudan itself, it is difficult to assess the public’s appetite for further fighting.Hemedi declares that he is the wronged party and he says that he is oppose the killing of civilians and support civil government.

Mr. Al Burhan thinks of Mr. Hemedi as follows. criminals and upstarts.

Undoubtedly, both sides recognize that the longer this situation drags on, the more unsustainable their operations will become.

But while the generals struggle, the economy continues to decline and the cost of living continues to rise.Since the coup, daily necessities such as bread have been now 10 times more expensive than beforeother items increase by up to 300%.

As a woman in the markets of Khartoum It pointed out As recently reported by Reuters, we are fighting for food just as they are fighting to plunder the country.