According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian soldiers captured during the invasion of Russia, as well as six crew members and three Russian military personnel.
Russia’s Investigative Committee announced Thursday that it had opened a “terrorism” investigation into the crash.
Michael Nacke, a military expert who criticizes Russian aggression and runs a widely followed YouTube channel, said evidence so far suggests the plane was shot down by Ukraine.
He noted the nature of Ukraine’s response throughout the day, saying, “We can say with a high degree of confidence that the aircraft was shot down by Ukrainian forces.”
An independent military analyst based in Moscow, who requested anonymity to speak freely, also said the plane was “probably” shot down by Ukraine, but declined to comment further.
“This is a strange case. We may never fully uncover the truth,” the analyst told AFP.
– What does Ukraine say? –
Ukrainian authorities confirmed that a prisoner exchange is scheduled to take place on Wednesday. However, they did not confirm the presence of prisoners on board, nor did they claim responsibility for the destruction of the aircraft. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for an international investigation, and Kiev launched a criminal investigation.
Ukrainian media initially cited defense sources as saying that the Ukrainian military shot down the plane, which was carrying ammunition for the S-300 missile system. This claim was later retracted.
In a statement issued hours after the crash, the Ukrainian military said it intended to continue targeting Russian aircraft in the Belgorod region.
Nakke said the lack of an official declaration that Ukraine was not involved in the plane’s downing meant that for him there was no clear indication that the Ukrainian military had used either the S-300 or the Patriot PAC2 missile system to attack the plane. “It was a sign,” he said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Wednesday that Russia was already “using the Il-76 crash to sow discontent in Ukraine and undermine the West’s will to continue providing military support to Ukraine.” Ta.
– Were there any prisoners on board? –
Analysts say it remains unclear whether there were Ukrainian prisoners on board.
Nacke said he had seen photos from the crash site showing two bodies, but that “of course does not correspond to the reported number of fatalities from the crash.”
Ukraine says Moscow has not informed Kiev that prisoners will be transported by plane, as required under the Geneva Conventions. Moscow claims Kiev was warned.
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of Russia’s state-run RT channel, published a list of Ukrainian prisoners said to have been on board the plane, but multiple Russian and Ukrainian sources said at least one of them was a previous exchange. He said that it had been replaced.
“The ‘evidence’ Russia has presented so far is not convincing,” Kreiszcz said.
Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov said the plane was carrying both missiles and Ukrainian prisoners, who may have been used as “human shields for transporting ammunition.” Ta.
In an interview with Radio Svoboda, part of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Yusov also did not rule out the possibility of “deliberate provocation” and said that several Russian A senior official claimed to have been warned at the last minute not to board the plane.
But the Moscow-based analyst said he was skeptical about the possibility of a Russian trap.
“It’s not impossible,” he said. “But I don’t believe this was planned.” This is because the Il-76 and its crew were “an extremely valuable resource” for Moscow during the war.
“And prisoners who are suitable for exchange are not such a disposable resource.”
Anna Smolchenko
