US identifies four potential invasions

Department of Defense:
The report said China could impose a blockade, conduct limited armed operations, use air and missile operations, or resort to invasion.

• Staff Writer, CNA, Washington

The Pentagon has identified four possible courses of military action that China could take against Taiwan, but did not speculate on when Beijing might be ready to take action.

In its annual report to the U.S. Congress released Tuesday, Military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2022the ministry provided a broad overview of China’s military capabilities, strategy, ambitions and intentions.

The report devotes considerable space to Taiwan-related developments, noting that China has increased diplomatic, economic, political, and military pressure on Taiwan in the last year.

For example, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced last year that it conducted 20 naval exercises simulating the occupation of Taiwan, up from 13 the year before.

According to the report, Chinese fighter jets, including the most advanced J-16 fighter jets, entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on 240 days last year.

According to the report, China currently has a wide range of possible military courses of action against Taiwan, which vary in feasibility and risk and can be divided into four broad categories.

First, China could attempt an air and sea blockade to cut off Taiwan’s vital imports, possibly involving missile attacks and the occupation of Taiwan’s remote islands, in an attempt to force surrender. Yes, the report said.

It also said this would likely be complemented by electronic warfare, network attacks and information operations “to further isolate Taiwanese authorities and people and control the international narrative of the conflict.”

Second, the Chinese government said it may use “limited force or coercive operations.”

In this scenario, China would use “computer networks or limited kinetic attacks” against political, military and economic infrastructure to instill fear and reduce Taiwanese trust in their leadership, the report said. ing.

In such an operation, the People’s Liberation Army’s special operations forces could “infiltrate Taiwan and conduct attacks against infrastructure and leadership targets,” the newspaper said.

Third, air and missile operations involving precision strikes against key government and military targets aimed at reducing Taiwan’s defenses, “neutralizing” its leadership, or undermining its people’s resolve to resist. could be used, the report states.

A fourth step would be an actual invasion of Taiwan, the newspaper said.

The most likely invasion tactic China would employ would be joint island landings, the report said.

The initiative envisions complex, coordinated operations to establish beachheads, build up combat power on Taiwan’s coast, and seize key targets across the country, the newspaper said.

Although China continues to build and rehearse such capabilities, a large-scale amphibious invasion is “one of the most complex and difficult military operations,” burdening China’s military and potentially inviting international intervention. high, the report said.

“These factors, coupled with the inevitable attrition of troops, the complexity of urban warfare, and the potential for violence, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political risk for Taiwan.” [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party, even if the landing and breakthrough were successful.”

Nevertheless, the Pentagon says China is already capable of conducting amphibious operations short of a full-scale invasion, such as invading Pratas Island (Dongsha Island, Dongsha Islands) and Ituaba Island (Taiping Island, Taiping Island). thinking. Islands in Kinmen and Lianjiang counties are being better defended, the newspaper said.

But even a limited operation would carry significant “and possibly prohibitive” political risks, as it could stir up Taiwanese independence sentiment and provoke strong international opposition. the report states.

The report did not give a timeline for when China might take such action, but said China’s goal of accelerating its military’s integrated development by 2027 makes it likely that China will ” “There is a possibility that we will have a more reliable military tool that can be used in the future,” he said. Unification. “