The federal Liberal brand will be put to the test again in a by-election in Montreal’s LaSalle-Emard-Verdun riding on Sept. 16. Liberal leaders hope the election will not be a repeat of the party’s defeat in the Toronto riding earlier this summer.
The by-election defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul constituency, a seat the Liberals have held for more than 30 years, sparked much reflection and frustration among Liberal MPs, who interpreted it as a rebuke to the party’s leader, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Some Toronto-St. Paul voters told CBC News the by-election is a referendum on Trudeau and that a defeat there should be seen as a signal that he should step down after nine years in office.
That’s how former school board member and Montreal voter Mary Ann Davis feels about the upcoming by-election in her constituency.
“People are not happy with the Liberal Party. They’re not happy and they’re basically saying, ‘I’ll vote for anyone but the Liberal Party,'” she said.
“I think Trudeau should resign. I will definitely vote for the NDP this time.”
Frederic Dejean, a native of France, said Trudeau fatigue is one of the reasons he’s voting NDP.
“Trudeau has been in Ottawa for a long time and it may be time for him to step down and hand the reins over to someone else,” he said.
Trudeau has held on to power despite some stubborn opposition and has brushed off calls for him to step down and overhaul his cabinet and staff, pledging a renewed focus on policy rather than politics and personalities.
But the race in the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun constituency is about politics and thwarting NDP and Bloc Quebecois challengers who are looking to unseat a long-time Liberal seat and deal further damage to Trudeau’s camp.
“This election is about Justin Trudeau’s record. People want to send a strong message to Ottawa and I want to be their voice,” Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé told CBC News.
“I think voting for the block is a good way to protest. I’m going to be banging on the doors of this constituency.”
According to census data, more than half of the district’s residents (about 58 percent) are French-speaking.
About a quarter of the district’s residents, roughly 23 percent, speak English as their first language, and the district’s LaSalle neighborhood is home to a sizable Italian-Canadian community.
This demographic has historically favoured the federalist Liberal Party in parts of the province where majorities voted overwhelmingly against Quebec independence.
The Liberal Party has won the district in the last three elections, but the party’s control of this area southwest of Montreal goes back much further.
The communities that make up the district have been represented by Liberals, including former prime minister Paul Martin, for much of the past century, with two notable exceptions: the 1980s, when Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives were dominant, and a brief hiatus after an orange wave swept several Quebec NDP candidates into power in 2011.
Voters go to the polls on September 16 in two by-elections, one in Manitoba and one in the Liberal stronghold of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun. Writ.ca’s Eric Grenier breaks down the raw numbers and polling trends for both constituencies.
Montreal city councillor Craig Sauvé said he is running for the NDP because he wants to recreate some of the magic that sent so many New Democrats to Parliament back then.
“We’re getting a lot of votes from disgruntled Liberal members and blokes who want the Liberal party to lose this election, and I think we’re in the best position right now in this three-way race,” Sobe said in an interview.
“We’re doing everything we can to win this seat, to make Quebecers think, ‘Yes, the NDP can win,'” he said.
An NDP victory here would be a major upset: Their candidate received less than 20 per cent of the vote and came in a distant third in the last federal election, and Quebec currently has only one NDP member of parliament.
Craig Sauvé has represented part of the district at City Hall for more than a decade, which he said means he has the name recognition and organizational muscle to take the seat away from the bruised Liberal Party.
Sauvé has told voters that if they elect him to Parliament, he will help the NDP pressure Prime Minister Trudeau to act and expand emerging social programs such as drug benefits and dental care that were created in exchange for supporting the Liberals in Parliament.
He is also trying to capitalize on Arab, Muslim and Palestinian anger over the Liberal government’s stance on the Gaza conflict. He has promised to pressure the government to more strongly condemn Israel for the way it is conducting its war in the Gaza Strip. The NDP also wants Canada to immediately recognize a Palestinian state.
Muslims make up about 5.5 per cent of the electorate in the district, according to 2021 census data from Statistics Canada.
More than 50 disgruntled Liberal political staff, most of whom are Muslim or Arab, wrote to Trudeau last month saying they would not support the party’s campaign in the upcoming by-elections, accusing the government of not being pro-Palestinian.
“We have fewer seats than other parties but we have achieved more. Without us the outcome would have been very different,” Sobe said.
But doubts are being raised about whether the NDP can get more out of the governing Liberals after party leader Jagmeet Singh tore up the supply and confidence agreement that delivered some progressive policy victories in the current minority parliament.
Laura Palestini is the Liberal candidate seeking to replace former justice minister David Lametti as the region’s member of parliament, who won handily in the 2021 federal election by 20 points over the runner-up, the Bloc Party.
Palestini, a city councillor for 20 years, said voters can expect the Liberals to deliver results with or without the NDP’s support.
Though the Liberals are struggling in national opinion polls, Palestini said they’re getting a positive response from voters here in Montreal.
“I work the door and it’s been very well received,” she told CBC News.
Palestini acknowledged that some people are fed up with Trudeau, but said he won’t let that get him down.
“I’m focused on myself in this election. My name is on the ballot and I’m here to win. I’m someone who needs to make the effort to make sure people know who I am, what I stand for, where I come from and what I stand for,” she said.
She has promised voters that if sent to Ottawa, she will focus on revitalizing the economy, lowering the cost of living, building more housing and finalizing health and dental care systems.
“Canada has been through some very difficult years. The last few years have been very tough. People have a right to their opinion of their prime minister, but we had some very fruitful and vibrant conversations about what I can do to make a difference if I’m elected,” she said.
As for political staff refusing to cooperate with her campaign over Gaza, Palestini said they too have a right to voice their opinion.
“I respect that and don’t expect anyone who feels there is any reason to be uncomfortable to get involved,” she said, adding that she has a team of local volunteers ready to help.
She also has the backing of Quebec-based cabinet ministers who campaigned with her, including Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly and Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez.
Dozens of Arab and Muslim staff members of the federal Liberal Party are threatening to sit out the upcoming Montreal by-election over the government’s stance on the Gaza war and its policies on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sean Robb is one of those voters who is open to the Liberal Party, but he still plans to support NDP candidate Sauvé in the by-election.
“I don’t think Prime Minister Trudeau has done a bad job at all. I think the animosity towards him has been exaggerated,” Robb said, praising Trudeau’s handling of the pandemic and its resulting economic fallout, adding that it would have been difficult for any leader.
“Frankly, I have yet to see anyone from the NDP who could be a better prime minister for this country,” he said.
So why won’t he vote for the Liberal candidate?
He said he thinks the NDP candidate can be a force for good and an agent of change.
“Mr Trudeau has been in power for a long time and when you’re in power for that long it’s normal for the tide to tend to go backwards,” he said.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-liberal-contest-lasalle-%C3%A9mard-verdun-1.7314779?cmp=rss
