Scientists warn that Gulf Stream slowdown could begin as early as 2025

Eve is here. While you are busy paying attention to the unsavory news on the Israel, Gaza, and now Iranian fronts, unsavory news is progressing on other fronts as well. Climate change experts have been warning for some time that once enough glacier ice melts, the Atlantic-Gulf Stream will slow down as salinity drops. A LiveScience article predicted that the Gulf Stream could reach an inflection point in her 2100 year. The article below greatly speeds up your chances of getting started.

The LiveScience article provides a succinct explanation of the mechanism.:

The Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), is essentially a “giant conveyor belt” along the U.S. East Coast, said study co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. he said. Germany’s PIK) said in a statement.

The current begins near the Florida peninsula and carries warm surface water north toward Newfoundland before meandering east across the Atlantic Ocean. By the time it reaches the North Atlantic, that warm surface water becomes colder, saltier, and denser and sinks into the deep ocean before being swept south again, where the cycle repeats. The currents move more than 5.2 billion gallons (20 million cubic meters) of water every second, “almost 100 times more than the Amazon,” Rahmstorf said. [River] flow. “

This conveyor belt of moisture has a myriad of climate impacts on both sides of the Atlantic, keeping temperatures moderate in Florida and the UK, influencing the path and strength of cyclones, and helping to regulate sea levels. But since direct measurements began in 2004, scientists have detected a troubling pattern. That means the AMOC current is slower and weaker.

To better explain this slowdown in a new study published February 25 in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers attempted to extend the history of the AMOC’s flow by nearly 2,000 years. Because direct measurements of flow were not available before the past two decades, the research team turned to alternative data, information from environmental archives such as tree rings and ice cores that help put the AMOC in a long-term perspective. .

The researchers used 11 different metrics, including temperature records, Atlantic silt data, underwater sediment cores, and deep-sea coral population records, to comprehensively estimate AMOC temperatures and their migration rates over the past 1,600 years. I created an image.

“For example, faster ocean currents can transport larger particles, so we looked at particle sizes in ocean sediment cores,” Caesar said. “We also looked at coral species composition, because different coral types prefer different water temperatures, and the Gulf Stream system influences water temperatures in the North Atlantic.”

Together, these agents told a unified story about the end of the Little Ice Age (a period of global cooling that spanned approximately 1300 to 1850) and the sudden decline in ocean currents that began with a small slowdown around 1850. . A second, more dramatic slowdown began in the mid-20th century. Since then, the currents have weakened by an additional 15%, the researchers found.

“We found consistent evidence that the system over the past several decades has been weaker than at any time in the past 1,600 years,” Caesar said.

Now for the main event.

Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who frequently writes about energy and the environment. His work has also appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Le Monde Diplomatique, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider, and many other places. He is the author of the oil-themed novel “Prelude” and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He is currently a fellow at the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions. It was first published in crude oil price

• India’s heat wave standards do not take humidity into account, thus underestimating the dangers of heat.
• Deadly wet bulb temperatures, where sweat does not evaporate, are occurring more frequently.
• A potential slowdown or collapse of the Gulf Stream could push Northern Europe into a colder climate.

Two recent pieces of news highlight why what was once most often referred to as global warming is now called climate change. Yes, the earth is warming. However, the impact will vary depending on where you live for a variety of reasons.

beginning, Report from India It points out that the criteria used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue heat wave warnings are problematic. The standard does not take humidity into account, only temperature. Anyone who lives in a hot climate, or one that includes hot summer days, knows that humidity can make a big difference in whether or not you stay cool in hot weather. IMD standards fail to recognize that temperatures below what is considered a heatwave can be just as dangerous to human health as high humidity, and can even be completely life-threatening. It turns out. This means that India is already experiencing conditions at or near the limits of human survivability.

Most people, even with an unlimited supply of water,They can die after a few hours in conditions above 95 degrees with very high humidity. This temperature is called the wet bulb temperature because it is equivalent to wrapping a wet towel around the bulb of a thermometer. The temperature of this athlete’s foot is thought to mimic the way humans cool down their body temperature through sweating. When the humidity is very high, sweat on the skin has difficulty evaporating, making it easier for the body to cool down. This is why using a handheld fan or electric fan can help cool you down by increasing evaporation.

Scientists had previously believed that such extreme conditions were now extremely rare anywhere on Earth. Recent research suggests that 40 years ago, such extreme events occurred once or twice a year somewhere on Earth. Currently, models suggest they occur 25 to 30 times per year. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced, these extreme conditions will become increasingly common. “Such conditions are untenable without technology such as air conditioning, and outdoor work is nearly impossible,” the report said. science news Article linked above.

a second story Temperatures are rising in the opposite direction in some parts of the planet this week as a direct result of the warming of the Greenland ice sheet, increased precipitation due to climate change, and decreased salinity in the tropical waters where the Gulf Stream occurs. It warns that it may happen.

The Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), transports heat from the tropics along the coast of the United States, across the Atlantic Ocean to the British Isles, and back north to Iceland and Greenland. After losing much of its heat there, it heads downwards to 6,000 to 9,000 feet deep in the Atlantic Ocean, returning to the equator and beginning its journey along South America.

How much heat does the Gulf Stream move? About 50 times the energy used by all of human civilization. This explains why Northern Europe (which is a branch of the AMOC and also flows into Scandinavia) and Iceland are much warmer than their higher latitudes would indicate. If energy transfer were to slow or stop dramatically, these regions would almost certainly be forced into a colder climate regime for which they are not currently prepared.

The basic idea was exaggerated in the movie “The Day After Tomorrow”. The change from mild climate to frozen wasteland takes place over the course of a week in the film. However, it is concerning that the collapse of his AMOC in the past occurred within his 10 years.

Scientists have been tracking AMOC since 2004 and think its momentum is slowing.. When researchers discovered through calculations and modeling that the AMOC could begin its next collapse as early as 2025, they couldn’t believe it. They double-checked the results and their conclusions were confirmed. Their models suggest that ocean currents could start breaking up sometime between 2025 and 2095 (some scientists noted that there is considerable uncertainty in the models) But this is a valid criticism. My answer: Should people on the path of potential destruction just wait and do nothing until the model is complete? If so, how long should they wait? do you have?)

The range mentioned above is not that wide even from a human perspective. And this suggests once again that the catastrophic effects of climate change will not be just another matter in the distant future. In the coming decades, humanity may be escaping a catastrophe caused by climate change that will make it either too hot to bear or too cold for life.