Experts say Russia’s offensive around Kharkiv, Ukraine, is aimed less at seizing major cities and more at posing strategic difficulties for Kiev over where to deploy its already-skilled forces. It is said that there is a high possibility that
By Monday, Moscow’s forces had shelled about 30 villages in the northeast and captured dozens of square kilometers (miles) in several days.
But analysts say Russia will take Ukraine’s second-largest city, which had a pre-war population of 1.4 million, after failing to seize the industrial center already in its first invasion in February 2022. I don’t think that is Russia’s immediate goal.
Former Australian general: “This Russian army is not large enough to capture a city the size of Kharkov.” mick ryan Written on a blogging platform substack.
“However, increased shelling could put it at risk,” he added, adding that the coming weeks “could be one of the toughest periods of the war so far for Ukraine.”
Over the two years of the invasion, Russia has been conducting operations to complement the attrition of personnel and materiel on the battlefield and the public opinion of its allies in Kiev.
They still have the numerical advantage after months of deadlock in Washington over a $61 billion aid package that was finally passed in April.
Ukrainians “were forced to ration shells and munitions for months, which led to high attrition rates,” he said. Ivan Kreiszcz of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), based in Estonia.
Shortened supply line
“New US military support commitments mean rationing does not have to be as strict,” Kuszcz added, but Kiev “continues to hold as much territory as possible and We must maintain our military strength,” he added.
After last summer’s failed Ukrainian offensive and the Rasputitsa period of melting snow and thick mud across the country, the initiative has returned to Russia.
Moscow also said it could absorb painful losses given its “much greater human resources and industrial capacity than Ukraine.” Pierre Lazeux of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES).
The Russian government says it wants to create a “buffer zone” to protect the border area of Belgorod, which is regularly exposed to shelling.
The Kharkov region’s border location means that “Russia can mobilize air support, drones and artillery and fire from within its territory, shorten supply lines and protect air superiority,” Razu said. he said. “They are in the best position.”
Ukraine faces a fundamental strategic dilemma.
“They have to protect the front lines, but they also have to protect strategic locations that cannot be lost,” Lazu added, highlighting in particular the main cities and the roads back to Romania, Poland and the western Ukraine border. .
The question for defenders is: “Is it more important to protect an important target or to protect the front line?” he asked.
“Military and Politics”
For now, fulfilling both tasks appears to be beyond Kiev’s reach.
“This is both a military issue and a political issue,” Ryan wrote. “If the Ukrainians decide to hold their positions at all costs, they will lose even more of their increasingly small army. We will have to give up our land.”
It may not be immediately clear whether Russian forces will be able to pull off a large-scale offensive in the northeast, and it will take more time for strategic impact to emerge in other areas along the front. .
“There doesn’t seem to be any fundamental change in (Russia’s) strategy,” Krajszcz said. “Occupying the entire Donbas region… seems to be a priority for Russia at this stage.”
retired french general olivier kempf wrote on his blog that Russia’s advance into the Kharkiv region is “evidence of the weakness of initial resistance.”
He added that the Ukrainian military would have avoided “over-committing troops to salient areas that are difficult to defend.”
“Now we will be looking at the intentions and capabilities of both sides,” Kemp predicted, ruling that the positions taken so far “do not necessarily matter.”
russian leader Vladimir Putin It is likely aimed at further changing minds from the fighting, including among Kiev’s Western allies.
His attention will likely turn to the upcoming US presidential election and the possibility of a return to power. donald trumphas little interest in continuing aid to Ukraine.
“If we flag Ukraine before the election, President Trump will see it as proof that Joe Biden is a loser who bet on the wrong horse,” Lazu said.
