- Russia is likely to change the structure of its recent large-scale attack and focus on Ukraine’s air defenses.
- Ukraine focused on cruise and ballistic missiles, but not on one-way attack drones. Ukraine says decoys were also used.
- War analysts suspect that Russia is trying to make its offensive plan harder to defeat.
In the recent major barrage against Ukraine, Russia changed its attack package from previous attacks.
According to war analysts, there are two possible explanations for the change in attack composition: to conserve certain forces for future attacks, and to determine how Ukraine’s air defenses will respond. to confirm Improve your ability to deal with various threats and infiltrate them.
From late Tuesday night to early Wednesday morning, Russia carried out a series of missile attacks against Ukraine. Although its scale was comparable to recent barrages, the Ukrainian side said the mix of assets involved in the attack was different.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report Russia has 4 S-300/S-400 surface-to-air missiles, 15 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 12 Iskander ballistic missiles, and 5 Kh-59/Kh-315 missiles. It fired. It fires missiles at areas such as Kharkov and Kiev. It is said to have shot down all Kh-101/555/55s, 5 out of 12 Iskanders, and 2 Kh-59s. Others broke through Ukrainian defenses.
Some missiles are already a challenge, such as the highly inaccurate Kh-22 anti-ship missile, but that’s not the only story. War Research InstituteThe Washington, D.C.-based think tank said footage posted by Russian intelligence sources on Tuesday shows the missile firing a decoy flare, which has been previously recorded. He said that there is.
It is noteworthy that this attack did not involve the Shahed 136/131 drones, which Russia regularly conducts attacks with the aim of overrunning Ukraine’s air defenses.Shahed, modern Russia Also produced domestically Their absence is notable because they are often included in large-scale attacks, rather than being sourced exclusively from Iran.
“This attack package may have utilized decoys instead of Shahed drones to experiment with the effectiveness of using decoys and storing Shahed for other purposes,” ISW said. Ta.
Another aspect of this attack is about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Ukraine, equipped with U.S.-provided Patriot artillery batteries and other advanced Western air defenses, has proven quite capable of defeating Russian attacks, but whether that will continue to be the case. is unknown.
ISW points out that “Ukraine’s military appears to have recently adapted to new Russian attack packages,” and “Russian forces have penetrated Ukraine’s air defenses and forced Ukraine to deploy air defense systems in specific locations.” “It is likely that they continue to experiment with new attack packages using various enforcement methods.” . ” This is an approach that puts a strain on Ukraine’s air defense system.
After rebuilding its stockpile of precision-guided weapons and ramping up its attacks, Russia is trying to figure out where it can punch holes in Ukraine’s air defenses. Between December 29 and January 2, Moscow’s military launched 500 missiles and drones into Ukraine, killing dozens and wounding many more.
Meanwhile, Russian ground forces continue to inch forward on the battlefield, gradually squeezing the area around Avdiivka in southeastern Ukraine, just west of occupied Donetsk, and have been sending waves of troops in recent months. However, progress is limited.