Based on the October ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series.
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payrolls (bold black), nowcast (blue) based on error correction model using ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series, +/- 1 standard error line (gray), as of 10/31 Bloomberg Consensus (red squares), all 000s, sa Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author calculations.
The ECM used is estimated over 2021M07-2024M09, with an adjusted R2 of 0.67 and a SER of 0.002. Using a simple regression of the first log-difference BLS on the contemporaneous ADP series yields virtually identical nowcasts.
Please note that this is a mechanical nowcast based solely on historical BLS and ADP data. Strikes and hurricanes are not considered. Goldman Sachs (Walker/Linders) said:
Although ADP’s employment growth indicators have historically been less affected by natural disasters, Homebase’s data consists primarily of food, retail, and service industries managed by owner-operators; It is highly likely that the impact of the strike was overlooked.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/private-nfp-nowcast