Although NATO is dissatisfied with Turkey, Turkey’s geostrategic location is important, former CIA director and retired four-star general David Petraeus pointed out in an interview with Kathimerini, and the Greek military’s superiority is important. He added that sex was evident on every battlefield. they manipulated.
Petraeus, currently chairman of the KKR Global Institute, is recognized as one of the most experienced 21st century commanders in modern battlefield and intelligence warfare. During a recent visit to Greece as part of the Delphi Economic Forum, he commented on the capabilities of the Greek Armed Forces and met with the Greek Chief of Defense Staff and Minister of Defense. An active commentator on the Ukraine war, he explained the possible scenarios in the operational field and the importance of the Ukrainian Spring counterattack in the course of the war.
While Russia’s winter offensive is coming to fruition, Ukrainians are preparing for a spring counteroffensive. How do you assess recent developments on the front line and where the Ukrainian counterattack is likely to focus?
The most important recent development is the fact that the Russian army has not been able to achieve the objectives of the winter offensive, despite suffering heavy casualties. A few days ago, a spokesperson for the US National Security Adviser said that the Russian military had suffered 100,000 casualties (including wounded) during this winter offensive. 20,000 of them died in battle, but they did not capture Bakhmut, they did not capture Avdiivka, much less all the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, which was the goal established by Vladimir Putin. Ta.
Therefore, in the battles of Kiev, Kharkov, Sumy and Chernihiv, and of course the battle of Kherson, the Russian army again missed its goals, just like last year.
The counterattack, expected by everyone and bringing in nine additional armored brigades that Ukraine announced it had set up, would likely cut off Russian land lines of communication from mainland Russia to Crimea along Ukraine’s southeastern coast. It will be the intended purpose. And I think you’ll get very impressive results. I believe that for the first time in this war, Ukraine will achieve a combined arms effect. In other words, they will cut off the Russian air, with the effectiveness of infantry and infantry fighting vehicles and armored vehicles supported by all these artillery and mortars provided by the West, and with technicians to reduce obstacles and defuse mines. It will be combined with air defense to do so. Use task forces and electronic warfare to disrupt Russia’s command and control systems.
All of these different capabilities are combined with a veritable response of logistical support immediately behind the lead force with additional ammunition, food, fuel, water, medical support, and most importantly, a follow-on force that can continue the attack. The squad maintains the momentum achieved by the lead element as it eventually reaches its apex. And that usually happens 72 to 96 hours after a very intense battle begins. There physical soldiers can no longer advance far and usually suffer certain losses in terms of weapon systems and personnel.
I think it will break through the Russian lines. Because the Russian defense concept, as we understand it, requires retreating to the southeastern defensive line and then to multiple fronts in the south. And it is a very difficult operation to carry out even by the best troops, the most well-trained, well-equipped, disciplined and cohesive forces.
The Russian army at the moment is a force that has suffered huge losses since February last year, has been provided with a large number of replacements of poorly trained or poorly equipped individuals, and the force is Not trained as a unit. So I think this is going to be very impressive. It is extremely important that Ukraine’s counterattack succeeds. Because it is important not only on the battlefield, but also in Kiev and the capitals of Europe and America. And this is so important to Moscow that President Vladimir Putin still believes that the Russians can defeat the Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the Americans. And I have to prove him wrong.
“Russian forces have suffered huge losses since February last year and have a large number of replacement troops who are neither adequately trained nor adequately equipped.”
Do you expect the war to be spread across many smaller and geographically diverse fronts, for example in the Balkans or in African countries? If so, will the Kremlin try to divert the attention of its allies from the battlefield in Ukraine?
I don’t see any conflict in those areas. Certainly not physical, and certainly not military. We do see Wagner Group elements operating in various African countries, Syria and Libya. There are efforts to drive a wedge between certain countries in the Balkans and the rest of Europe. Of course, we even see efforts to drive a wedge between Europe and North America. President Putin will therefore do everything possible to undermine the extraordinary unity that has formed in NATO since February 24 last year. The irony here is that Putin set out to make Russia great again, and what he actually did was make NATO great again. And more than that, no one has contributed more to the cause of Ukrainian nationalism than Vladimir Putin.
Regarding regional issues in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea, Turkey is currently torn between the Western alliance and Russia. How does the United States view this pendulum’s behavior, and if President Erdogan is forced to make a choice, what choice is he likely to make?
I think any Turkish leader would do what leaders of most countries do: choose their country. For decades, there has always been a degree of awkwardness in relations between Turkey and NATO, and Turkey and other NATO members, as well as with Greece. As you know, Turkey is in a very important position, literally between West and East. It always stood between NATO and the USSR, then NATO and Russia, and then the former Russian republics. It is in a very difficult region and often makes choices that seem contradictory, at least from the perspective of some of her NATO countries.
Again, this is not unique to NATO. Consider Russia’s long-standing relationship with some of her NATO allies in Eastern Europe. Therefore, it is a difficult, unpleasant, awkward, frustrating and sometimes infuriating situation and one has to show some patience while taking action. Of course, there were times when the US decided to cut off Turkey’s access to F-35s due to the purchase of Russian air defense systems… But again, this is not the only thing in the world there is no. This is just one of many global challenges for NATO, NATO member states, the United States, and the Western world.
Returning to the second part of your question, if President Erdoğan had to choose between NATO and Russia, what would he choose?
He’s going to choose Türkiye. And that would make him try to step into NATO and at least try to build relations with Russia, and that’s what he did. By the way, this is not bad in a sense, since it is relations with Russia that made it possible to broker a grain export agreement with Ukraine for Black Sea grain.
So is this why NATO allows such actions of Turkey and Erdogan?
Now, again, NATO clearly has grievances with Turkey, and certainly has many grievances, but Turkey’s geopolitical position is also important. The base in Türkiye is essential. Therefore, NATO has had to show, frankly, a certain amount of patience, or even frustration, many times when it comes to its relations with member Turkey.
Many believe that President Erdoğan’s electoral defeat is imminent and that he will engage in unpredictable panic behavior. Is there a possibility of a new crisis in the Aegean Sea, and if so, how will NATO react?
I don’t want to go into the kind of assumptions this question raises. All I’m saying here is that I’m sure the leaders in NATO, the EU, Washington, and other capitals are all thinking about a variety of possibilities and contingencies. And prepare for what it is and how to react to those eventualities. However, I will not go into details here. Given my previous positions in government, I believe these are too sensitive for me to investigate. Also, on a recent visit to Athens, I met one of NATO’s greatest military leaders, the Greek military commander, General Floros, and an equally impressive leader, the Minister of Defence. I would also like to mention that we met. I am reminded of the wonderful Greek troops that were part of the International Security Systems Force in Afghanistan when I had the privilege of commanding them.
