Written by Toms Rostocks and Alexander Lanoshka
April 2, 2024
PDF of the paper
executive summary
At the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit, member states announced the formation of the Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP), a multinational battalion-sized battle group that would deploy to the Baltic Sea region with the aim of reassuring countries most concerned about Russian military aggression. announced. Canada agreed to become a framework state for Latvia and has since led the largest and most multinational fighting group.
The partnership between Canada and Latvia, now in its seventh year, has not only been trouble-free but also brought success stories. Canadian forces have been welcomed, there have been no significant incidents involving Canadian forces, Latvia has made significant changes to its military posture, and the multinational diversity that characterizes this combat group is a strength rather than a weakness. It seems to be the source of this. However, despite this success, challenges seem to mount.
One of the key decisions taken at the 2022 NATO Madrid Summit was to expand battle groups from battalions to brigades. For Canada, it is unclear how it will provide the necessary forces and weapons, given the cumulative effects of years of chronic underinvestment in the Canadian Armed Forces. The Latvian government may face unique challenges in increasing defense spending to 3% of gross domestic product by 2027. Its economic development lags behind that of its Baltic neighbors, and it may be difficult to maintain such high levels of military spending in the long term.
The fundamental problem facing this battle group is that its capabilities may be insufficient to adequately defend Latvia from a highly determined and militarily reconstituted Russia. . It is unlikely that Canada will be able to contribute beyond its current military involvement. Furthermore, Canada’s location on the other side of the Atlantic means that it cannot rapidly expand its military presence in Latvia. Indeed, Canada announced cuts to its defense budget at a time when the Canadian military was already under severe strain. It is reassuring, at least in the short term, that Canada does indeed plan to send 2,200 troops to Latvia and pre-position equipment across brigades. However, over the medium to long term, questions remain as to whether Canada will be able to fully and effectively implement its commitments.
Latvia is aware of the difficulties Canada is experiencing and is not standing by. He reintroduced conscription to build a larger army. We are also increasing defense spending and acquiring vital military platforms such as medium-range air defense, rocket artillery, and coastal defense systems that will help the Canadian-led bridge operate more effectively in Latvia. It will be helpful. Importantly, Latvia has announced plans to develop a new large-scale military training base in Selonia, allowing for large-scale military exercises involving other eFP battlegroups in the Baltic Sea region.
While eFP has received little public attention in Canada, there is broad social consensus in Latvia about the need to address the security threat posed by Russia. However, significant differences remain in how the average Latvian and the country’s Russian-speaking minorities view the security challenges posed by Russia. One of the recent debates in Latvia has been whether to use anti-personnel landmines along Latvia’s borders with Russia and Belarus. As a result of this bitter and divisive discussion, it was concluded that Latvia would not pursue the acquisition of anti-personnel mines, but would work with Estonia and Lithuania to develop a Baltic Sea defense line and invest in fortifications and defense equipment along its borders with Russia and Belarus. Reached. Perhaps the fact that the official name of the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines, comes from the Canadian capital may have deterred Latvian officials from considering the use of such weapons.
We conclude our report with some policy recommendations.
- Ensure continued exchanges between Canadian and Latvian forces, despite concerns that the option of establishing a new base in Latvia could lead to fewer exchanges between the multinational battle group and the Latvian side.
- Deepen political and military cooperation between the Baltic host countries and the framework countries so that the three Baltic states come together to constitute a single theater of operations.
- Develop a credible plan for force posture in Canada that takes into account the increasing constraints facing the Canadian Forces in the current environment.
- Low visibility of the eFP mission may suggest a lack of understanding of the stakes involved and the Canadian government’s commitment to European security, leading to Canadians’ long-term concerns about Russia. Please prepare a containment strategy.
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