Gold price outlook
- gold price Nothing has progressed in recent days, but it’s down more than 2% this year.
- usa core PCE Friday’s data likely to guide the near-term outlook for precious metals
- This article describes XAU/.USDKey technical levels worth paying attention to in the coming days
Most read article: USD mixed on forecast of big hit in GDP data, pessimistic ECB holding back
Gold prices (XAU/USD) inched higher on Thursday, supported by lower yields, despite better-than-expected US gross domestic product (GDP) data.
Considering recent movements, bullion prices are down more than 2% this year, but the past few trades have lacked directional certainty. However, the US core PCE from December will be announced on Friday morning ahead of next week’s FOMC announcement, so volatility may increase heading into the weekend.
In terms of estimates, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is now expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, bringing the year-over-year rate to 3.0% from 3.2% previously, a welcome development for policymakers.
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|
change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
| every day | -6% | 7% | -2% |
| weekly | -16% | -6% | -12% |
Upcoming US economic data
sauce: DailyFX Economic Calendar
The US economy remains strong, as reflected in recent GDP and labor market data, and traders should pay close attention to the path of inflation. If there is only insignificant development in the disinflationary trend, markets are likely to exit overly dovish bets on the Fed’s policy direction, a situation that could push yields higher and hurt precious metals. .
On the other hand, if price pressures remain on a downward trajectory, there will be fewer obstacles for the Fed to begin lifting policy restrictions, even if economic activity remains strong, and the March rate cut could be put back on the table for good. become. This should have an impact on the market once the annual core PCI measurement falls below his 3.0% threshold.
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Technical analysis of gold prices
After falling to multi-week lows last week, gold has stabilized in recent days, but hasn’t really gone anywhere, with price trendline resistance at $2,030 and horizontal support at $2,005. It is sandwiched inside the line. Breaking through these technological levels will be critical for major directional movements to develop, otherwise consolidation will be the most likely scenario.
Focusing on the possible outcomes, a bullish breakout could send XAU/USD towards $2,065. If it continues to strengthen, all eyes will be on $2,080. If the bear market breaks, the next line of defense against a pullback would be $1,990 and then $1,975, or around the 100-day simple moving average. Further losses after this point could draw attention to the 200-day simple moving average.
gold price technical chart
