Ukraine and Russia have achieved some territorial success and flung missiles and drones at each other in their 90th week of war, but each shows little sign of slowing down.
However, much of the main activity took place in European capitals.
European Union member states will decide whether to give Ukraine 20 billion euros ($22 billion) in military aid and 50 billion euros ($54 billion) in state and reconstruction aid over four years, and at a European summit in December. It was discussed whether to invite Japan to the start of accession negotiations. .
Both actions would send a strong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Europe’s resolve to support Ukraine has not weakened. Europe is also preparing its 12th sanctions package, making it difficult for Russia to sell oil around the world.
Meanwhile, Britain ensured that Ukrainian grain could continue to be exported through the Black Sea by brokering insurance contracts that lowered the cost of war risks for cargo ships. That cost briefly rose after Russia attacked a sixth civilian cargo ship on Nov. 8.
war on land
This week, Ukraine established a beachhead on the left bank of the Dnipro River, threatening Russian forces on the western edge of the front.
Russian reporters said that on November 9, Ukraine advanced into new positions around the town of Klinki, 20 kilometers east of the city of Kherson. The advance of the army was confirmed on November 13th using footage obtained from location information. The report also said that Ukrainian military artillery fire continued to overwhelm Russian forces in the town. Between Klinky and Kherson City.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kirillo Budanov said in a statement on Nov. 11, the first anniversary of Russia’s tactical withdrawal from the territory of Kherson in western Ukraine, that the military was “doing everything possible to expel Russian forces from the left bank.” I’m doing my best,” he said. river.
Two days later, Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, said: “Contrary to all expectations, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gained a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper.” [Dnipro river]”
With Ukraine’s advances, it appears Russia was not ready to communicate.
On November 9, the day of the Ukrainian military advance, Russian forces announced that they had thwarted Ukrainian attempts to gain a beachhead on the left bank, killing 500 Ukrainian servicemen in one week.
On November 13, Russia’s state-run TASS news agency and RIA Novosti newspaper published reports that Russia was ordering units of the Dnipro unit in Kherson to be redeployed to “more advantageous positions.” Both retracted their reports within minutes and apologized.
Russia also advanced.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that on November 8th and 9th, Russian forces launched 30 attacks in the north and south of Bakhmut, an unusually high number, and that according to footage obtained from location information, the Russian military launched 30 attacks in the north and south of Bakhmut. regained control of the railroad running south of Bahmut and marched north of Bahmut. City.
“Russian forces are reinforcing and trying to regain previously lost positions,” Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Shirsky wrote on Telegram.
Russia also continued to put pressure on the eastern city of Avdiivka, south of Bakhmut, which it sought to besiege.
Ukraine’s military chief of staff Valery Zarzhiny said on November 10 that Russia had lost 10,000 people in the first month of the attack on Avdiivka.
“During this period, our soldiers destroyed more than 100 enemy tanks, 250 armored vehicles, about 50 artillery systems and 7 Su-25 aircraft. The total human losses caused by the enemy were about 10,000 people. ” he wrote on social media.
Neither Ukraine nor Russia could independently verify the other’s claims of losses.
air combat
Ukraine and Russia also sparred from a distance.
The Ukrainian Air Force announced that it shot down 19 of the 31 Shahed drones launched by Russia on November 10. Russia also adopted Ukrainian technology and launched Kh-31 missiles, Onyx anti-ship missiles, and S-300 air defense missiles into Ukrainian territory. Using drones and missiles together to overwhelm air defenses.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced on the same day that it shot down two Ukrainian drones, one near Moscow and the other near Russia’s border with Belarus. Russian Telegram channel Baza, which has links to security services, suggested it was targeting a machine shop in Kolomna, 100 kilometers (62 miles) southeast of Moscow.
Ukraine has consistently asked its allies to expand their air defense systems. On November 9, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense requested France for additional ammunition for air defense systems and participation in F-16 pilot training.
Pilot training took a major step forward on November 9, when five Dutch F-16s arrived at Romania’s Fetesti Air Base for pilot training. Four days later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address that F-16 pilot training had begun.
The European F-16 Training Center (EFTC) in Fetesti will also train non-Ukrainian pilots.
The Netherlands has loaned 12 to 18 F-16s to EFTC for training purposes and is helping coordinate efforts to provide Ukraine with its own F-16s. Ukraine’s Deputy Energy Minister Farid Safarov recently told a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting that F-16s are the best way for Ukraine to protect its energy infrastructure from Russian attacks in the winter, but Ukraine It is unclear how quickly the US will be able to operate the F-16.
further sanctions
The EU is finalizing its 12th sanctions package against Russia, which could be approved on Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday, November 13.
“This 12th package… includes new export bans, including on diamonds,” Borrell told reporters, adding: “This will reduce the income Russia receives from oil sales. To this end, measures will likely be taken to tighten the upper limit on oil prices.” Not to us, but to others – [and] “The fight against avoidance.”
Days earlier, the European Parliament had called for toughening and extending European sanctions on Russian oil. The resolution pointed out that petroleum products refined from Russian oil continue to flow into the EU from India, and gas also continues to flow directly into the EU.
But Europe’s most important contribution to Ukraine’s security may come in December. Ukraine has been lobbying for an invitation to public accession negotiations, a request supported by the European Commission.
“We are working to obtain an unconditional decision to start negotiations,” President Zelenskiy said in a video address on November 13. “It is fundamental for Ukraine to implement all the European Commission recommendations given, to implement all seven recommendations and to do what is necessary at this stage of the path to the European Union.”
The EU last year gave Ukraine candidate status if it passed legislation to fight corruption and money laundering, limit the influence of oligarchies, ensure the integrity of the judiciary and guarantee the rights of ethnic minorities. announced that it would give.
At the same summit, the EU is expected to decide whether to approve a 50 billion euro ($54.2 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine from 2024-27. The European Parliament has already given the green light to the so-called Ukraine Facility, which aims to provide funding to countries transitioning to EU membership and help them rebuild.
Separately, EU diplomats were considering a 20 billion euro ($22 billion) military aid package that would require member states to spend 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) a year over four years.
EU diplomats said on November 14 that there was resistance to the policy.
The EU’s foreign policy chiefs proposed a military budget in July. Skeptics reportedly include Germany, which has been active in providing military aid to Ukraine in the past, and which plans to double its military aid to Ukraine by 8 billion euros (8.7 billion euros) next year. This is despite the fact that the government is proposing to increase the amount to US dollars.
The ruling coalition has reportedly agreed to the increase and plans to submit it to a committee discussion on November 16. “This is a strong signal to Ukraine that we will not leave them alone,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was quoted as saying.
Germany’s 8 billion euro ($8.7 billion) pledge comes as Chancellor Olaf Scholz seeks to ensure Germany meets NATO defense spending of at least 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the medium term. Germany plans to spend 1.57% of its gross domestic product (GDP) this year, and a pledge of 8 billion euros ($8.7 billion) will increase it to more than 2% next year.
