The deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a Spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is just around the corner. a few months awayAnd analysts are divided over the likelihood that regulators will approve such products.
Legal experts Jake Cherbinski and Scott Johnson cast doubt on the likelihood of a positive outcome.
“Many seem to think that now that the SEC has abandoned the fight against spot BTC ETFs, they will do the same with ETH. I’m not sure,” Chervinski wrote on social media. Speaking on Platform X.
Regulatory hurdles
scott johnson warned Investors should be prepared for the possibility that their ETFs will be disapproved.
According to Johnsson, the SEC may require consistent correlation over the entire 2.5-year sample period to meet the requirements of Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act.
While this stance may be irritating to ETF supporters, Johnson does not view it as irrational or capricious.
He also argues that approval is likely in the next year, making appeals less attractive and painting the SEC in a constructive light. “And more importantly, why would someone bring such tough arguments on appeal when there is a high degree of confidence that the appeal will be approved before it is decided?” he wrote.
This point of view was further discussed at X, where users discussed the arbitrariness of the two-and-a-half year period and the prospects for eventual approval.
Earlier this week, the SEC postponed its decision on approving a spot Bitcoin ETF until March.
Disagreements regarding the probability of approval
Contrasting opinions have emerged regarding the acceptance odds of the Spot Ether ETF. A recent JPMorgan report cited continued litigation against crypto exchanges that offer proof-of-stake blockchain staking services, including Ethereum, and suggests ETFs could be approved by May. The probability of this occurring remains at 50%.
This legal uncertainty further complicates the SEC’s decision-making process. Meanwhile, Eric Balciunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, initially estimated the probability of approval this year at 70%, while colleague James Seifert gave a slightly more cautious outlook of 60% to 65%. There is.
Seifert acknowledged that there are strong arguments both for and against the ETF’s approval, and expressed less confidence than previous Bitcoin ETF approvals.
